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How
quick will I become financially
independent?
It is
official, if you want to be rich,
really rich, then property investment
is the way to do it. At least that is
the experience for most of the
wealthiest Australians.
According to the
Business Review Weekly's latest rich
list over two thirds of the wealthiest
200 people in Australia made their
money from property dealings.
Admittedly many of the super rich have
diversified into commercial property
investments both locally and overseas,
but the majority began with
residential property, particularly
land and housing development.
News that many of the wealthiest
people made their money from property
would not be surprising. But it is
significant that these people have
long-term confidence in property
investment.
Residential property as an investment
class has had a very good run over the
last five years. It has been long
growth cycle and despite several mini
peaks, the residential property market
continues to record strong growth in
property values in most sectors. A
reliable indicator of the immediate
outlook for the property sector is the
stock of properties available for
sale. Currently stock levels are at
the lowest level in almost 10 years,
which means pressure for more growth
in property values will continue, at
least until stock levels build up
again.
Inevitably the property cycle will
turn and there will be a slowing in
the market. If you study property
cycles closely you would know that the
property cycle could be anticipated
with confidence. But there is
something different about the current
market and it is usually the factor
that triggers the turning points in
the cycle, interest rates.
I cannot recall a time when the
interest rate outlook has been as
favourable as the present. After the
two interest rate increases last year
we feared the worst. But then there
was the reassuring news that interest
rate settings were on hold and now
there is a realistic chance of
interest rate cuts.
A long-term property investor would
take a strategic position on interest
rates. Low interest rates provides the
opportunity to build up equity, maybe
take some gains and look to new
property investments while values
continue to rise. The long-term
investor would also look to be in a
position to ride out any future
increases in borrowing costs.
But the very strong signals from the
money markets, economic commentators
and other economies similar to ours is
that interest rates are likely to stay
low for a much longer period than we
had expected.
This has two implications for the
property sector. Stable interest rates
means less volatility in property
sales. And the absence of sharp
movements in interest rates means that
other longer-term factors are more
likely to be the trigger points for
changes in the property cycle, like
the supply of housing.
Stable market conditions and more
natural outcomes in the property
market are good outcomes for property
investors. Stable finance costs means
an investor can plan ahead with more
confidence. Meanwhile the rich
continue to get richer with property.
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